COA Analysis (Wargaming)

Test each COA against the threat's likely actions to refine it, find risks, and set up synchronization and decision points.

• ▸COA statements and sketches
• ▸Threat COAs (most likely and most dangerous)
• ▸Running estimates
• ▸Evaluation criteria

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1. 1.Gather the tools: maps, COA sketches, threat COAs, event template, recording tools.All
2. 2.List all friendly forces and capabilities.S-3
3. 3.List assumptions.All
4. 4.List known critical events and decision points.S-3/S-5
5. 5.Select the wargaming method: belt, avenue-in-depth, or box.S-3/S-5
6. 6.Select how to record and display results: synchronization matrix, sketch notes, decision support template.S-3/S-5
7. 7.Wargame each critical event using action, reaction, counteraction. Record results.All
8. 8.Assess results: refine the COA and identify decision points, branches, sequels, shortfalls, and risks.All
9. 9.Update CCIRs, ISR and collection, and risk controls.S-2/S-3

• Refined COAs
• Synchronization matrix
• Decision support template and decision points
• Updated risk assessment, CCIRs, and task organization
• Branch and sequel ideas

• Wargaming only your own actions, with no thinking threat.
• Letting one COA "win" through bias.
• Not recording results.
• Skipping sustainment and protection.
• No decision points captured.